The search for a new champion as the first round of fixtures concludes - Neftchi lead, Qarabag still struggling

Neftchi, who were already playing with confidence under Ukrainian coach Yuriy Vernydub last season, currently sit top of the table. Having lost only to Zira in the third round, the Black and Whites are unbeaten against their other title rivals. This season, the People’s Team played out a goalless draw with reigning champions Sabah, while they let their lead slip late on against Qarabag in a match that finished 3–3. With a league-high 26 goals, there is no denying that the team play attacking football and do so effectively. Neftchi clearly have their sights firmly set on the title, and every player currently looks confident. Admittedly, the Black and Whites have played one game fewer than second-placed Sabah, but with a three-point gap over the Owls, that does not materially alter the picture. The capital club will certainly bring in new players during the winter transfer window if necessary and will want to hold on to their lead until the end.

Having reached the league phase of the UEFA Champions League for the first time in their history, Sabah’s recent domestic league results must naturally be viewed in the context of their participation in Europe’s most prestigious club competition. Including the Azerbaijan Cup, the capital club are competing on three fronts. The Pink and Blacks have a more congested fixture list, and switching preparations from one competition to another also presents psychological challenges. Valdas Dambrauskas’s side have not won since the eighth round. After a goalless draw with Qarabag in Mardakan, Sabah returned from Tovuz with a 3–2 defeat before failing to overcome Shamakhi at home in the 11th round, drawing 2–2. Their CL results also suggest that their energy levels are, so to speak, dropping. While a 2–1 defeat to Borussia Dortmund despite a spirited performance was to be expected, the 4–1 loss to Viking in Norway was a rather sobering reality. Dambrauskas, who is said to have received offers from other clubs and to be preparing to move on at the end of the season, needs to deliver an improvement in results in the very near future. Although no serious target is being discussed in the CL, dropped points in the Premier League could complicate matters.

Turan Tovuz, coached by Kurban Berdyev, who is frequently criticised for favouring a pragmatic approach over attractive football, sit third. With six wins, three draws and two defeats in 11 matches, the western side are clearly still on course to achieve their target. Yes, the Grey Wolves have looked toothless in some matches, notably in their dismal 1–0 defeat to Imishli in Yevlakh. But beating two title contenders in their latest matches sends a strong message. Having denied Sabah any points with an impressive 3–2 home win, Turan then beat Qarabag 1–0 away, which is enough to show that this team are gathering momentum. With the regional club level on 21 points with the second-placed Owls and just three points behind the leaders, little more needs to be said.

Having sold several key players after last season’s CL adventure and substantially rebuilt their squad, Qarabag are still struggling to find their feet. Five wins, four draws and one defeat in 10 matches hardly has the hallmark of a title-winning campaign. That said, all is far from lost for the Aghdam side. The Horsemen have 19 points and a game in hand on leaders Neftchi. However, the Blue and Whites’ failure to score in their last three matches is one of the main causes for concern. There is little evidence to suggest that things are changing for the better. Time will tell what Gurban Gurbanov changes in the near future, and how.

Zira’s injury crisis

Although Zira are competing for the top places, having needlessly dropped points this season amid an injury crisis, their squad and budget are not consistent with a title challenge. Clearly, the club themselves have not made winning the championship an absolute objective. The Eagles are fighting for the European qualification places. Level on points with Qarabag, the settlement’s club have scored 16 goals but conceded 15, clear evidence that things are not going according to head coach Rashad Sadigov’s plans.

We asked respected football expert and former Azerbaijan national team midfielder Aslan Karimov to assess the teams occupying the top five places after the first round of fixtures. Here is what he told Fanat.az:

“If we look at the table, we can see that some of our expectations have not been met. I thought I would see different teams among the leaders. The current situation is somewhat different. Sabah and Qarabag are still among the leading sides. But Neftchi’s rise to first place, and Turan Tovuz beating both Qarabag and Sabah, can be considered something of a surprise. Even so, looking at the overall picture, we can see that our expectations have not changed significantly. The top five are Neftchi, Qarabag, Sabah, Turan Tovuz and Zira. Even during the previous championship, there was a sense that these teams would be contenders and had greater potential than their other rivals.

There have simply been some unexpected developments in the battle between Neftchi, Qarabag and Sabah. For example, I expected Sabah to be leading up to this round and thought they would remain top after it as well. However, dropped points and draws have caused Sabah to slip back a little in the table. Nevertheless, that is normal and is one of the things you can expect over the course of a championship.

Qarabag deserve particular attention. To be honest, I did not expect the team to fall back this much in the league. So many dropped points, successive poor results and their difficulty scoring goals have come as a surprise to me. I think this has been quite a significant decline for Qarabag. Going three consecutive games without scoring and dropping points in several matches was not what we expected from this team. We knew there had been numerous changes to the squad, but I did not think they would affect the team to this extent.”